Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleApr 28, 23, 1:55 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to yes if the US establishes by 2028 a policy requiring certain kinds of AI incident reporting, similar to requirements in aviation or data breach reporting.
- The policy may allow for many incidents to be kept confidential within a regulatory body.
- The goal is to enable regulators to track specific types of harms and near-misses from AI systems, allowing them to identify dangers and quickly develop mitigation strategies.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
