Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?
One-OffRegulationTech2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 57.8%
No 57.8%Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 28, 23, 1:54 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to track stocks and flows of cutting-edge chips over a specific capability threshold and requires a license for assembling large masses of such chips.
- The policy aims to improve visibility into potentially dangerous clusters of compute, and ensure the effectiveness of other compute governance measures.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
