Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.7%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 23, 2:07 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panguna_mine
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Bougainvillean_independence_referendum#Negotiations
- Will the Panguna Mine, one of the richest deposits of copper and gold ore in the world, resume operation before 2028? Relevantly, the mine was closed in the past due to mismanagement resulting in contamination of the island and racial segregation of workforce, which led to a worker uprising and a civil war.
- Also relevantly, the results of the Bougainvillean referendum indicate independence from Papua New Guinea to be ratified this year, and result in complete independence at some point between 2025 and 2027.
- The market resolves YES if the Panguna mine opens for extraction before 2028 and NO if it does not.
- The market will resolve early, on publication of results in a major press outlet of record, such as the Chicago Sun-Times or Tribune, the New York Times, Vox, 538, and CNN, an official statement by a mining concern, or any reputable Papuan or Bougainvillean press or governmental outlet.
