Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 89.3%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleOct 4, 22, 10:50 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any of NASA's Canoo Crew Transportation Vehicles (CTVs) fail during operation or no longer be utilised by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve if any of the following are true:
- - If this market reaches its close date
- - If `HdfAJon2lb0ZttRbUSAC` closes (Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?).
- It will resolve based on the following decision tree:
- - If the human operator agrees:
- --- Resolves to round(MKT).
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt90%
- OpenAI-1.7pt8%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $152.1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No87.7%
- Yes12.3%
- Total Vol
- $212.9K
- 24h Vol
- $124.9K
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 202766%
- 202626%
- September 30, 20268%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-8.0pt62.3%
- Above 9-40.0pt13.9%
- Above 10-11.0pt9.8%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic73.5%
- OpenAI+0.9pt17.6%
- Google-1.1pt5.9%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,47%
- June 30,41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- #3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Two SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
- Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Performers
- What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028? resolve?
- Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve if any of the following are true: