Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, 3:42 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- No
- Recorded
- Jul 25, 2026, 5:51 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 days ago
StaleMar 2, 26, 6:03 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
1%
99%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall79% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $2.9K | $0 | 25 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 99% | — | — | — | 26 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Closed
Resolved
No (100%)
100%
0%
24 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$65.9M
24h Vol$2.9K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.