Current community forecast
No 50.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 3:42 AM UTCOct 2, 26, 2:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 9, 2026? (Closes early)
Manifold MarketsWill SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 16, 2026? (Closes early)
Manifold MarketsWill SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, September 25, 2026? (Closes early)
Manifold MarketsSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWill SpaceX (SPCX) finish week of September 21 above___?
PolymarketWhat will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in September 2026?
PolymarketRules
INTENTIONALLY CLOSES EARLY
- Part of a weekly series tracking SPCX (SpaceX, Nasdaq) against the $150 threshold, following https://manifold.markets/BarryJones/will-spcx-close-at-15000-or-higher (created 2026-09-18 as a corrected re-run of an earlier market whose closeTime cut off betting a day before the event it asked about).
- RESOLUTION CRITERIA: resolves YES if SPCX closes its regular trading session on Friday, October 2, 2026 at a price of $150.00 or higher.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Based on the official regular-session closing price as reported by a reputable market data source (e.g. Nasdaq, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance, WSJ), checked after market close. closeTime is set for after that day's regular session close, with a buffer for confirmation, so the actual day's trading is fully priced in before betting closes.
- Seeded from SPCX at $152.71, current as of market creation, using the same distance-to-strike fair-value model as the account's SPCX Alpha Watch routine (see NOTES.md), not an arbitrary guess.
Open markets
EquitiesPOLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9M
- 24h Vol
- $62K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-4.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
LIMITLESSS&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes51.5%
- No48.5%
- Total Vol
- $49.3K
- 24h Vol
- $49K
KALSHIS&P close price end of 2026?
- 8,000 to 8,199.99+2.0pt16.4%
- 7,800 to 7,999.99+1.0pt15.4%
- 7,600 to 7,799.9912.7%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.9M
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.8pt60.8%
- 8–11B+6.7pt9.8%
- 11–14B-0.1pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- 600B+-0.3pt95%
- No IPO by December 31, 2027+0.8pt4%
- 400–600B-0.1pt1%
+4 more outcomes
- How high will the S&P get this year?
- Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
- STRC hits $100 by…
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Sweetgreen restaurant-level profit margin in Q3
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 21?
- Lemonade total customers in Q3
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 2, 2026? (Closes early)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 50% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 2, 2026? (Closes early) resolve?
- Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 2, 2026? (Closes early) is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, October 2, 2026? (Closes early) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: INTENTIONALLY CLOSES EARLY