Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?
ETFCustomSpaceEquitiesCorporate ActionsTech1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 3, 26, 2:50 PM UTCJun 12, 28, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Would an investment of $10,000 in SpaceX at its closing price on the day of its IPO have greater total returns than the same amount invested in an index fund tracking the S&P 500 after two years?
- For resolution, I plan to chart the return on $10,000 in SpaceX (SPCX) vs. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), with dividends re-invested, on Morningstar (or equivalent), from the day of IPO to the same calendar day two years later.
- If SpaceX is acquired or delisted, I will resolve early using the total returns of both up to that point.
- If VOO is discontinued, I will use an equivalent low-cost ETF.
- If the SpaceX IPO is canceled or delayed past 2026, the market will resolve N/A.
Open markets
ETF
LIMITLESSAerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes71.5%
- No28.5%
- Total Vol
- $22K
- 24h Vol
- $11.8K
POLYMARKETWhat will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of September 7 2026?
- ↑ $193+21.9pt100%
- ↑ $192+28.4pt100%
- ↑ $191+22.9pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.5K
- 24h Vol
- $10.4K
POLYMARKETWhat will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $188+40.0pt100%
- ↑ $186+35.0pt100%
- ↑ $184+28.4pt100%
+34 more outcomes
LIMITLESSS&P 500 ETF (SPY) Up or Down - Daily
- No87.7%
- Yes12.3%
- Total Vol
- $2.3K
- 24h Vol
- $2.3K
POLYMARKETAI bubble burst by which date?
- 2026+1.6pt13%
- March 31, 2026-0.1pt0%
- 2025+0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETEWY (EWY) Up or Down on September 10?
- Down+46.5pt97%
- Up-46.5pt3%
- Total Vol
- $70
- 24h Vol
- $70
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO? resolve?
- Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO? is scheduled to resolve on June 12, 2028.
- How is Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Would an investment of $10,000 in SpaceX at its closing price on the day of its IPO have greater total returns than the same amount invested in an index fund tracking the S&P 500 after two years?