Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?
ETFCustomSpaceEquitiesCorporate ActionsTech1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 58%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 3, 26, 2:50 PM UTCJun 12, 28, 10:00 PM UTC
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Would an investment of $10,000 in SpaceX at its closing price on the day of its IPO have greater total returns than the same amount invested in an index fund tracking the S&P 500 after two years?
- For resolution, I plan to chart the return on $10,000 in SpaceX (SPCX) vs. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), with dividends re-invested, on Morningstar (or equivalent), from the day of IPO to the same calendar day two years later.
- If SpaceX is acquired or delisted, I will resolve early using the total returns of both up to that point.
- If VOO is discontinued, I will use an equivalent low-cost ETF.
- If the SpaceX IPO is canceled or delayed past 2026, the market will resolve N/A.