Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Mana discount, no retro (63.6%)
Resolved: Oct 17, 2026, 5:12 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 18, 2026, 9:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
No mana discount1.7%
Mana discount, no retro63.6%
Mana discount, retro allowed34.7%
Won
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
I bought my Manifest 2026 ticket (woohoo) (technically the all access ticket including LessOnline and Summercamp)
- There was an option for a LessWrong karma discount, but no option for a Manifold mana discount
- Will this be instituted, and will I be able to apply the discount to my already-purchased ticket?
- It counts as instituted if on less.online, manifest.is, or any other official Manifest / LessOnline / Summercamp website there is a public way to apply a Mana discount
- Or if there is a clear message on one of those sites, that you can contact the Manifest team, and they will apply the discount manually
- A retroactive discount means that I receive real money (not Mana, or cryptocurrency)
