Current community forecast
No 85%
Forecasters
82
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Jan 6, 23, 12:18 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This question resolves 'yes' if Wikipedia or similar mainstream sources of scientific information to a general audience say that there is currently life on Mars.
- I set it to resolve in 2034 because Martian soil samples collected by the Perseverance rover are planned to be returned to Earth in the NASA-ESA Mars Sample Return mission in 2033.
- However, if life on Mars becomes scientific concensus for any other line of evidence, this market will still resolve to 'yes'.
- If it is discovered that there is currently life on Mars that was accidentally seeded by previous rovers from Earth, it will resolve to 'yes' if the life is widely considered to be replicating and spreading on Mars away from the original source of contamination.
- Jan 6, 9:12am: Will it be scientific concensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034? → Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?
