Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90.1%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 24, 26, 2:19 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
PolymarketWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if Iran accepts and complies with the primary U.S. demands in the on going negotiations.
- Specifically, Iran must:
- Transfer its (allegedly) remaining 400 kg of enriched uranium or be found to not have any.
- Halt its nuclear weapons development.
- Restrict its ballistic missile program.
- End its financial, political and military support for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.