Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 11, 26, 2:45 AM UTCNov 11, 26, 2:43 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsYann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsLargest Company end of September?
Polymarket$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketRules
I’ve been working for far too long at building my startup.
- I’m finally starting my big launch event.
- It’s a collaboration between Hackforums.net and my site https://canyouhack.me
- You can see the admin’s announcement here: https://hackforums.net/showthread.php?tid=6330078
- I’ve paid $500 into the prize pool for winner payouts.
- In three months, will I feel that this money was well spent? This market resolves YES if I later regret the investment.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M96%
- $25M95%
- $50M85%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.5K
- 24h Vol
- $190.5K
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.5pt96%
- Apple-0.1pt3%
- Alphabet+0.2pt1%
+6 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+8.0pt56.4%
- 65-89+13.0pt33.7%
- 90-114+2.1pt5.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-19918.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt17.8%
- 160-17913.9%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $211.6K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHICalifornia FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Above 680,000+4.0pt98%
- Above 690,00094%
- Above 710,000-1.0pt28%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2K
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Largest Company end of December 2026?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Ford total vehicles US sales in Q3
- Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Chewy active customers in Q2
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I regret investing $500 into my startup??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I regret investing $500 into my startup? resolve?
- Will I regret investing $500 into my startup? is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2026.
- How is Will I regret investing $500 into my startup? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I’ve been working for far too long at building my startup.