Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 26, 6:01 PM UTCMar 23, 27, 6:22 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026
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Manifold MarketsBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketNcaafheisman 26
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
This only includes future relationships or awards.
- Resolves based on date that I took the USAMO, or date when we start dating.
- This does not include boyfriends.
- Whether or not they count as a girlfriend is up to my discretion.
Open markets
AwardsPOLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-5.6pt54.5%
- Lamine Yamal+5.4pt23.2%
- Kylian Mbappé+1.0pt11.1%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8M
- 24h Vol
- $397.6K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN17%
- AMAN+2.0pt12%
- CCAR+2.0pt12%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIToronto International Film Festival: People's Choice Award
- I Play Rocky21.3%
- The Debut17.6%
- Club Kid14.8%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $23K
- 24h Vol
- $23K
GEMINIWho will win the Ballon d'Or this year?
- Harry Kane55.5%
- Lamine Yamal27%
- Kylian Mbappe14%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $182.8K
- 24h Vol
- $13.3K
POLYMARKETMLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- Lionel Messi-4.0pt53.9%
- Petar Musa+2.5pt37.3%
- Brian White+2.8pt2.9%
+25 more outcomes
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI-1.0pt60.7%
- Resident Evil Requiem-2.0pt12.8%
- Control Resonant-2.0pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Ballon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Who will be the top-selling artist by total auction sales in 2026?
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- MTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
- MLS: 2026 Defender of the Year
- EPL: 2026-27 Player of the Season
- MTV Video Music Awards: Artist of The Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Choreography
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- CMA Awards: Entertainer of the Year
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO? resolve?
- Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO? is scheduled to resolve on March 23, 2027.
- How is Will I get a girlfriend before I get an award on USAMO? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This only includes future relationships or awards.