KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: La bola negra (99%)
Resolved: Sep 21, 2026, 2:54 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
La bola negra
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
17%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 21, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
I Play Rocky1%
The Debut6%
Club Kid2%
Wild Horse Nine3%
La bola negra99%
Elsinore15%
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother1%
All of a Sudden1%
Josephine1%
Tender Loving Care1%
The Assassin(s)1%
Tie1%
Bucking Fastard1%
La bola negraWon
ElsinoreLost
Wild Horse NineLost
FjordLost
Club KidLost
I Play RockyLost
The DebutLost
TieLost
Your Mother Your Mother Your MotherLost
All of a SuddenLost
Bucking FastardLost
InkLost
JosephineLost
Possible LoveLost
Tender Loving CareLost
The Assassin(s)Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many films from the 2026 Cannes Film Festival Competition will receive an Academy Award nomination?
Manifold MarketsCritics Choice Award Nominations: Best Foreign Language Film
KalshiCritics Choice Award Nominations: Best Comedy
KalshiCritics Choice Award Nominations: Best Editing
KalshiCritics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actor in a Drama Series
KalshiThe Game Awards: Game of the Year
KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome wins the People's Choice Award at the 2026 Toronto International Film Festival, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Toronto International Film Festival
- If Elsinore wins the People's Choice Award at the 2026 Toronto International Film Festival, then the market resolves to Yes.
