KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Taylor Swift (99%)
Resolved: Sep 28, 2026, 3:12 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 28, 2026, 2:36 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Madonna1%
Ariana Grande26%
Taylor Swift74%
Taylor SwiftWon
MadonnaLost
Ariana GrandeLost
GENER8IONLost
Sabrina CarpenterLost
TieLost
Bruno MarsLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiCMA Music Video of the Year 2026
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome wins Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:MTV
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by the MTV Video Music Awards.
- Any references to the MTV Video Music Awards, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between MTV Video Music Awards and Kalshi.
- If GENER8ION wins Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Madonna wins Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.