GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Sep 10, 2026, 9:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Harry Kane 61.5%Leader of 31 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.7K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Oct 26, 26, 7:00 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 9:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year?
- If the named outcome wins the Ballon d'Or this year, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from France Football, ESPN, and FOX Sports.
- Read the full [rules](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fe0b2b64455004337b75fd0622a222d43?alt=media&token=dda6c865-c0e4-4ffe-9a1a-1a76c4a0af90&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
Open markets
Awards
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.4pt61.2%
- Lamine Yamal+1.4pt15.5%
- Kylian Mbappé-0.3pt10.7%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.2M
- 24h Vol
- $652.8K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN+1.0pt18%
- AMAN-1.0pt10%
- CCAR10%
+28 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Harry Kane94%
- Lamine Yamal+4.5pt81%
- Kylian Mbappé+3.0pt66%
+28 more outcomes
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI+2.0pt63.7%
- Resident Evil Requiem10.6%
- Control Resonant7.1%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETMLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- Lionel Messi-0.3pt50.5%
- Petar Musa+0.3pt43.7%
- Kévin Denkey+0.1pt1.9%
+25 more outcomes
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- BTS+1.0pt63%
- Ella Langley33%
- Olivia Dean+4.0pt9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $61K
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- Golden Boy 2026 Winner
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best K-Pop
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best R&B
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Collaboration
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Dance
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Alternative
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year??
- Gemini prices Harry Kane at 62% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? resolve?
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? is scheduled to resolve on October 28, 2026.
- How is Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Who will win the Ballon d'Or this year?