Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 9, 25, 7:31 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will @ShreyanJain attend Manifest 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the next Manifest X be after Manifest X DC?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an official Manifest or Manifest x in NYC by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiBozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will gwern attend Manifest 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will gwern attend Manifest 2026? resolve?
- Will gwern attend Manifest 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.