Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 90.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 24, 2:13 PM UTCJan 10, 34, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?
PolymarketWhich movies will make a billion dollars worldwide in 2026?
Manifold Markets3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
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Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves as YES if the trend indicator on Google Trends (or strong evidence with the closest equivalent / best available proxy for this question) exceeds the level it was at in November 2006, before January 1st 2034.
- Here is the current indication on Google Trends as of December 18th 2024 (worldwide / 2004-present):
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Gothic Movies make a significant comeback before 2034??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Gothic Movies make a significant comeback before 2034? resolve?
- Will Gothic Movies make a significant comeback before 2034? is scheduled to resolve on January 10, 2034.
- How is Will Gothic Movies make a significant comeback before 2034? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if the trend indicator on Google Trends (or strong evidence with the closest equivalent / best available proxy for this question) exceeds the level it was at in November 2006, before January 1st 2034.