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Which movies will make a billion dollars worldwide in 2026?

EntertainmentYearly7mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYC

Current community forecast

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 99%

Leader of 11 outcomes

Forecasters

38

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Jan 14, 26, 4:16 PMJan 30, 27, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie99%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for any movie that reaches a worldwide box office gross of $1 billion USD or higher and was released by December 31, 2026.
Resolution will be determined using verified box office data from Box Office Mojo or similar authoritative sources.
Each answer resolves independently—multiple movies can resolve YES if they each cross the $1 billion threshold.
If any movie is still in theaters in 2027 and hits the 1 billion mark next year, but was released in 2026, it still resolves YES.
In 2025, only four movies surpassed $1 billion: "Zootopia 2," "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Lilo & Stitch," and China's "Ne Zha 2.”

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Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for any movie that reaches a worldwide box office gross of $1 billion USD or higher and was released by December 31, 2026.
Resolution will be determined using verified box office data from Box Office Mojo or similar authoritative sources.
Each answer resolves independently—multiple movies can resolve YES if they each cross the $1 billion threshold.
If any movie is still in theaters in 2027 and hits the 1 billion mark next year, but was released in 2026, it still resolves YES.
In 2025, only four movies surpassed $1 billion: "Zootopia 2," "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Lilo & Stitch," and China's "Ne Zha 2.”