Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastThe Super Mario Galaxy Movie 100%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
50
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 14, 26, 4:16 PM UTCJan 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any movie that reaches a worldwide box office gross of $1 billion USD or higher and was released by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined using verified box office data from Box Office Mojo or similar authoritative sources.
- Each answer resolves independently—multiple movies can resolve YES if they each cross the $1 billion threshold.
- If any movie is still in theaters in 2027 and hits the 1 billion mark next year, but was released in 2026, it still resolves YES.
- In 2025, only four movies surpassed $1 billion: "Zootopia 2," "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Lilo & Stitch," and China's "Ne Zha 2.”