Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe Super Mario Galaxy Movie 100%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
49
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 26, 4:16 PM UTCJan 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?
PolymarketWill Grand Theft Auto 6 make more than $1.2 billion within 24 hours of it's release?
Manifold MarketsWill Twitter lose more than a billion dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Supergirl movie make over 600 million dollars worldwide?
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any movie that reaches a worldwide box office gross of $1 billion USD or higher and was released by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined using verified box office data from Box Office Mojo or similar authoritative sources.
- Each answer resolves independently—multiple movies can resolve YES if they each cross the $1 billion threshold.
- If any movie is still in theaters in 2027 and hits the 1 billion mark next year, but was released in 2026, it still resolves YES.
- In 2025, only four movies surpassed $1 billion: "Zootopia 2," "Avatar: Fire and Ash," "Lilo & Stitch," and China's "Ne Zha 2.”
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which movies will make a billion dollars worldwide in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which movies will make a billion dollars worldwide in 2026? resolve?
- Which movies will make a billion dollars worldwide in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 30, 2027.
- How is Which movies will make a billion dollars worldwide in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria