Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
One-OffSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 64.1%
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68
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 34 minutes ago
Dec 13, 22, 7:27 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves subjectively.
- What this might include is a noticeable split into e.g. longtermist and neartermist.
- For example, with a large (>10%) minority of members of either groups stopping to identify as part of broader EA generally.
- Open to hashing out more objective criteria.
