Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastYes 74%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleFeb 10, 25, 8:23 PMJan 2, 31, 7:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes74%
Volume trend
$50Jul 172d of dataJul 18
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KALSHI
KALSHIRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.