Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (83.2%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:22 PM
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Resolves YES if China's electrolytic cobalt output for March 2026 is reported to be at least 800 tonnes.
- The authoritative data source for resolution will be the monthly production reports published by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association or a similar reputable industry body.
- This threshold is significant given the sharp decline in output observed in early 2026, with January production at 370 tonnes and February projected at 340 tonnes.
- The recovery to 800 tonnes would indicate a substantial rebound in production, overcoming challenges such as high inventories, profit inversion, and raw material supply constraints.
- The market will settle based on the official production figures released in April 2026.
- Source: Article
