Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
53
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 3, 23, 3:25 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
Manifold MarketsWhat conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRules
I'll be using this list for qualifying conspiracy theories:
- https://www.teenvogue.com/story/most-popular-conspiracy-theories
- [link preview]I'll resolve this market YES if a consensus forms that any of these theories is broadly correct before the market resolution date.
- Otherwise I will resolve NO.
- A longstanding wikipedia article stating that one of these things is true would resolve YES, though I'm open to large polls of experts or other standards for defining consensus.
- I will not bet in this market.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+5.0pt46.1%
- 65-89+5.0pt29.4%
- <40-3.0pt15.7%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $41.4K
- 24h Vol
- $13.7K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No99%
- Yes-49.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $8.6K
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $1.7K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-2.0pt76%
- Yes+2.0pt24%
- Total Vol
- $16.4K
- 24h Vol
- $707.5
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Is Earth flat?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any of these 11 most popular conspiracy theories be proven true??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will any of these 11 most popular conspiracy theories be proven true? resolve?
- Will any of these 11 most popular conspiracy theories be proven true? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will any of these 11 most popular conspiracy theories be proven true? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I'll be using this list for qualifying conspiracy theories: