What conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
One-OffSociety & Culture
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015) 80%Leader of 27 outcomes
The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015) 80%Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 24, 12:43 AM UTCJan 1, 01, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRules
All options submitted must be conspiracy theories* that have not been proven true as of the time they were submitted and were not included as options in this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JamesF/what-conspiracy-theories-will-be-pr?r=UGxhc21hQmFsbGlu)Any option that doesn't follow these criteria will resolve N/A. Options may also resolve N/A if it is not sufficiently clear what would count as the theory being true or not.
- Otherwise, options will resolve YES if they are proven to be true by 2100 and NO if they are not. "Proven to be true" means that the proof should be widely accepted by experts on the event, and that it is possible for members of the general public to access the information which proves it true (so, a small secluded group having access to proof that a conspiracy theory is true doesn't count if this proof is not widely disseminated).
- It also means that the option is proven to have been true at the time it was submitted, so, for example, if someone submits "The U.S. government is hiding aliens in Area 51" in 2024, and then the government actually starts hiding aliens in Area 51 in 2050, with proof of this coming out in 2070, it will still resolve NO.
- If there is a controversy over whether a certain theory has been proven true or not and I am not around to adjudicate it, mods have permission to use any system they have in place for determining whether controversial markets with inactive/dead creators should resolve to YES or NO (e.g., determining it by a vote among mods).
- If no general system exists at the time, they have permission to form a panel to determine the resolution.
