Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created??

Manifold Markets prices No at 73.6% as of October 24, 2026.

When does Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created? resolve?

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.

How is Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The half-baked idea occurred to me the other day that a catastrophic geomagnetic storm that ruins all our electronics might be the closest thing we could get to an Eliezer Yudkowsky style 'pivotal act' to prevent AI doom comparable to his example of 'burn all CPUs'.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+4.8pt90%
• Anthropic-5.5pt9%
• OpenAI+0.3pt1%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.4M

24h Vol

$58.2K

KALSHI

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

• Above 699.5%
• Above 8-1.0pt99.5%
• Above 7-1.0pt99.5%

POLYMARKET

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?

• June 30, 2027-9.5pt24%
• 20269%
• 20279%

Total Vol

$1.1M

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

• Google-3.5pt56.7%
• Anthropic+2.5pt39.2%
• OpenAI-0.1pt3.1%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

• Anthropic73%
• OpenAI+3.9pt5%
• Alibaba0%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+0.5pt72.6%
• Anthropic+2.5pt27.4%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

• SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by which date?
• When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
• Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
• Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Performers
• What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in October 2026?
• How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
• How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
• Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?