Current community forecast
No 78%
No 78%Forecasters
52
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 22, 9:32 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first quantum computer to factor two 2048-bit RSA moduli do so in under a minute?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.
- Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?
- Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether a quantum computer factors a number greater than 31 by the end of 2026 (not before 2026 begins).
