Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
One-Off18y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 61.3%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 12, 24, 4:19 AM UTCJan 2, 45, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2045 for the market to resolve YES.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045? resolve?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2045.
- How is Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.