Current community forecast
Yes 66.7%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 1, 24, 3:47 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.
- Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
- Resolution Criteria
- Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
- Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
- Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2050 for the market to resolve YES.
Open markets
CryptoKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.9pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+32.5pt87%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
- 70,000+0.4pt100%
- 72,000+0.6pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- ↓ 60,000+10.4pt100%
- ↑ 80,000+11.9pt100%
- ↑ 75,000+30.4pt100%
+43 more outcomes
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- BTC 15 min · $78,497.72 target
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050? resolve?
- Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research.