Will a city ban manually driven cars on at least one public road/lane by 2030?
One-OffRegulationTech3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 23, 23, 9:42 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a US city ban meat sales before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the first to ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving cars in their capital city?
Manifold MarketsWill Congress pass a law banning the sale of Human Driven cars to the average consumer by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsTexas enacts data center moratorium by which date?
PolymarketAlphabet’s Market Cap end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
I rode in a self driving car over the weekend and was very impressed with its performance.
- Although it still has limited operating hours, I think that driverless cars have a very bright future ahead of them.
- Resolves YES if any city in any country bans manually driven cars on at least one public road/lane in 2030, and only allows driverless cars.
- Also resolves YES if a city builds a new road/lane specifically for self driving cars.
- For occasional maintenance/other incidental issues such as a dangerous malfunction, maintanance vehicles and ambulances can still be driven on these roads, but regular citizens should not be allowed to drive manual cars on these roads.
- On the majority of days in a year, manually driven cars should not be on the road.
