Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNobody 37.4%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 2, 25, 5:42 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 5:42 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
Manifold MarketsRobin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
KalshiWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat price will Chainlink hit in September?
PolymarketRules
I may or may not have an interview with Robin Hanson coming up.
- I created a prediction market about whether or not he would accept my request to be the subject of an interview about being the subject of a prediction market.
- And I want a sponsor for my youtube channel, so I put a public stripe link on twitter around the conversation to see if manifold would see the value.
- https://x.com/leo_guinan/status/1973804489401311452
- Here's my youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ideasupplychain
Open markets
ChainlinkKALSHIWhich of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?
- Chainlink (LINK)-3.0pt47%
- Ethereum (ETH)-4.0pt41%
- Bitcoin (BTC)38%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $689.2K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in 2026?
- ↑ 14+8.4pt100%
- ↓ 12+22.4pt100%
- ↓ 10+32.5pt100%
+12 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Chainlink hit in September?
- ↑ 12+48.0pt100%
- ↑ 1451%
- ↓ 1051%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSExit valuation of Haven (YC S23)?
- Less than $10M or bankrupt64.7%
- $10M - $100M12.6%
- $100M - $1B12.6%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $50
- 24h Vol
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the Fehmarn Belt fixed link between Denmark and Germany be completed by 2030?
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Total Vol
- $315.5
- 24h Vol
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSExit valuation of Chatter (YC S23)?
- $10M - $100M45.4%
- Less than $10M or bankrupt44.5%
- $100M - $1B6.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $117.8
- 24h Vol
- Of the top 18 jobs in the US in the year 2022, which one will be first to lose at least 1/2 of its workers?
- In what year will humans have more sex with robots than with other humans
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- Who DOSsed Finnish Defence Ministry web pages? (suggest answers, may take time to resolve)
- Days without sunspots in 2026.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists??
- Manifold Markets prices Nobody at 37% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists? resolve?
- Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Who Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I may or may not have an interview with Robin Hanson coming up.