Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastElon Musk 100%Leader of 61 outcomes
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+81.1 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleNov 27, 25, 12:44 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
UpOnly podcast: Guests this year
KalshiThe Joe Rogan Experience: Guests in 2026
KalshiJimmy Fallon: Guests in 2026
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES to every guest who appears on the podcast.
- The episode must not merely be recorded but also be released to the public, officially, not via a leak, for it to count.
- Any submissions made after the podcast episode is released to the public will be N/A'd.
- Dwarkesh Patel option note
- Will resolve YES if there is an episode where he is interviewed, like the AMA episode from 25th March 2025
- Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Collaborative episodes (where Dwarkesh collaborates with another podcast/creator) will count for resolution purposes if the episode appears on the Dwarkesh podcast feed and YouTube channel.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Elon Musk at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026? resolve?
- Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will be guests on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES to every guest who appears on the podcast.