Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastElon Musk 100%Leader of 61 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 27, 25, 12:44 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Dwarkesh Patel be a NYT bestselling author before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will be guest on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast?
Manifold MarketsUpOnly podcast: Guests this year
KalshiIf Dwarkesh Patel arm wrestled Trenton bricken, would he win?
Manifold MarketsThe Joe Rogan Experience: Guests in 2026
KalshiRules
Resolves YES to every guest who appears on the podcast.
- The episode must not merely be recorded but also be released to the public, officially, not via a leak, for it to count.
- Any submissions made after the podcast episode is released to the public will be N/A'd.
- Dwarkesh Patel option note
- Will resolve YES if there is an episode where he is interviewed, like the AMA episode from 25th March 2025
- Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Collaborative episodes (where Dwarkesh collaborates with another podcast/creator) will count for resolution purposes if the episode appears on the Dwarkesh podcast feed and YouTube channel.
