Who was the character that George R. R. Martin regrets killing (in the ASOIAF universe)?
One-OffEntertainment13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Grand Maester Pycelle 14.9%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 25, 10:15 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
In 2017, Diana Gabaldon, an author and friend of the writer George R. R. Martin, described a conversation with Martin where he mentioned that one reason he was struggling with to write The Winds of Winter (the long-awaited sixth instalment of his A Song of Ice and Fire series of fantasy novels) was that there was a character that he later regretted killing, saying ‘You ever kill somebody off that you later realised you needed?’ https://old.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/8rumol/spoiler_main_diana_gabaldon_author_of_outlander/?embed_host_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwikiofthrones.com%2Fgeorge-r-r-martin-delay-the-winds-of-winter-killed-important-character)
- Since then, fans of the series have speculated about who this character might be, and have put forward numerous theories:
- https://old.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/9kcxxs/spoilers_extended_who_was_the_character_that_grrm/
- https://old.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1azzixi/spoilers_extended_who_was_the_character_martin/
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10Yr0JHyROQ
- This market resolves to the identity of that character, if it is ever revealed by Martin (it will resolve N/A after Martin's death if it looks like we will never know the answer).
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who was the character that George R. R. Martin regrets killing (in the ASOIAF universe)??
- Manifold Markets prices Grand Maester Pycelle at 15% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who was the character that George R. R. Martin regrets killing (in the ASOIAF universe)? resolve?
- Who was the character that George R. R. Martin regrets killing (in the ASOIAF universe)? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Who was the character that George R. R. Martin regrets killing (in the ASOIAF universe)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In 2017, Diana Gabaldon, an author and friend of the writer George R. R. Martin, described a conversation with Martin where he mentioned that one reason he was struggling with to write The Winds of Winter (the long-awaited sixth instalment of his A Song of Ice and Fire series of fantasy novels) was that there was a character that he later regretted killing, saying ‘You ever kill somebody off that you later realised you needed?’ https://old.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/8rumol/spoiler_main_diana_gabaldon_author_of_outlander/?embed_host_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwikiofthrones.com%2Fgeorge-r-r-martin-delay-the-winds-of-winter-killed-important-character)