Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Before 2040 74%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 24, 7:05 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who was the character that George R. R. Martin regrets killing (in the ASOIAF universe)?
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Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketRules
Fire & Blood by George R. R. Martin was published in 2018; it is a fictional history book set in the world of the author's as-yet-unfinished fantasy series A Song of Ice and Fire.
- A second volume of the book, with the planned title Blood & Fire, is expected, though Martin has said that he will not publish it before the release of the next novel in the ASOIAF series, The Winds of Winter.
- This is an independent multiple-choice market; each option will resolve YES if the book is published (not just announced) before the year listed in the answer.
- It doesn't matter whether or not the second volume is split into multiple books (as some fans have speculated); the publication of a single sequel to Fire & Blood counts.
- Posthumous publications, including those involving another living author, (like the final books in the The Wheel of Time series) also count.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
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- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the second volume of "Fire & Blood" by George R. R. Martin be released??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2040 at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the second volume of "Fire & Blood" by George R. R. Martin be released? resolve?
- When will the second volume of "Fire & Blood" by George R. R. Martin be released? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is When will the second volume of "Fire & Blood" by George R. R. Martin be released? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Fire & Blood by George R. R. Martin was published in 2018; it is a fictional history book set in the world of the author's as-yet-unfinished fantasy series A Song of Ice and Fire.