Which will be the first Chinese orbital-class reusable rocket stage to land vertically?

ChinaOne-OffTech Space1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 11, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

Other 95.8%+1.8pt

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 16 days ago

Stale

Nov 29, 25, 12:31 PMNov 29, 27, 12:26 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Zhuque-3 (LandSpace)

0.3%

Long March 12A (SAST/CASC)

0.3%

Tianlong-3 (Space Pioneer)

0.2%

Kinetica-2/Lijian-2 (CAS Space)

0.2%

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Long March 10A (CALT/CASC)3%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES for the first Chinese orbital-class rocket stage to successfully land vertically.
The landing must be a controlled vertical descent to a surface (land or sea platform), not a parachute recovery or horizontal landing.
The same launch must successfully put a payload into orbit - no 'hops' or failures!
Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the rocket manufacturer or Chinese space authorities confirming successful orbital flight and vertical landing.
While China's progress is impressive, it still lags the United States, particularly SpaceX, which has launched more than 300 times.

Volume trend

$100

Jul 102d of dataJul 11

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Which will be the first Chinese orbital-class reusable rocket stage to land vertically?

ChinaOne-OffTech Space1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 11, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3

Current community forecast

Other 95.8%+1.8pt

Leader of 6 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 16 days ago

Stale

Nov 29, 25, 12:31 PMNov 29, 27, 12:26 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Zhuque-3 (LandSpace)

0.3%

Long March 12A (SAST/CASC)

0.3%

Tianlong-3 (Space Pioneer)

0.2%

Kinetica-2/Lijian-2 (CAS Space)

0.2%

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Long March 10A (CALT/CASC)3%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES for the first Chinese orbital-class rocket stage to successfully land vertically.
The landing must be a controlled vertical descent to a surface (land or sea platform), not a parachute recovery or horizontal landing.
The same launch must successfully put a payload into orbit - no 'hops' or failures!
Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the rocket manufacturer or Chinese space authorities confirming successful orbital flight and vertical landing.
While China's progress is impressive, it still lags the United States, particularly SpaceX, which has launched more than 300 times.

Volume trend

$100

Jul 102d of dataJul 11

Related Markets

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

$62

China: 41%

KALSHI

Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?

$121.9

Yes: 40.5%

MANIFOLD MARKETS