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Current community forecast
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Leader of 51 outcomes
Any model announced before 2034 90.3%Forecasters
180
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 1, 25, 11:47 PM UTCJan 1, 01, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Which of these models will beat me at chess once released? Resolves YES if they win, NO if I win, and 50% for a draw.
- I'm rated about 1900 FIDE.
- When each of these models are released, I'll play a game of chess with them.
- On each move, I'll provide them with the game state in PGN and FEN notation.
- If the models make three illegal moves, they lose.
- Responses like Nbd2 vs. Nd2 will not count towards this.
