Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Bolivia (100%)
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, 5:33 AM
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecastBolivia 100%Leader of 29 outcomes
Forecasters
44
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 days ago
StaleNov 29, 23, 8:20 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Afghanistan3.3%
Algeria4.1%
Bangladesh3.3%
Brunei2%
Comoros1.2%
Cuba2.2%
Djibouti2%
Indonesia3.8%
Iran3.7%
Iraq3.2%
Kuwait4.2%
Lebanon4.3%
Libya3.6%
Malaysia3%
Maldives3.3%
Mali3.4%
Mauritania4.5%
Niger3.3%
North Korea2.7%
Oman5.6%
Pakistan1.9%
Qatar4.1%
Saudi Arabia4.4%
Somalia2.6%
Syria1.9%
Tunisia3.3%
Venezuela1.8%
Yemen4.5%
Bolivia100%
1.8%
2%
2.2%
2%
1.2%
2.2%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Bolivia
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall78% match · verified | Low | 0% | — | $108.4K | $0 | 20 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 26 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
Closed
0%
0%
-0.9pt0%
+12 more outcomes
23 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$3.7M
24h Vol$108.4K
POLYMARKETRules
Note: this is the short-term version of this great market by @Panfilo @/Panfilo/which-of-these-states-will-recogniz
- This market will defer to that market's resolution, since this timespan is a subset of theirs.
- So barring very extreme circumstances, nothing will change here unless it changes upstream.
- Here are the rules I copied from that market, but overall, we obey the decisions of that market, if there is a conflict or difficulty.
- I will add items they add there, too.
- Any number of these states can resolve YES at any time between now and the due date.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? — NoZamamiTurtle23d ago
POLYMARKETWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? — NoZamamiTurtle23d ago$10.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? — NoTrustinghorse24d ago
POLYMARKETWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? — NoTrustinghorse24d ago$2.0k98.4%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos26d ago
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunos26d ago$10.3k93.2%POLYMARKETNoscottilicious27d ago
POLYMARKETNoscottilicious27d ago$1.6k93.1%POLYMARKETNoOnePiece727d ago
POLYMARKETNoOnePiece727d ago$1.6k93.1%POLYMARKETNojklsjdwoqejasdf27d ago
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Note: this is the short-term version of this great market by @Panfilo @/Panfilo/which-of-these-states-will-recogniz
- This market will defer to that market's resolution, since this timespan is a subset of theirs.
- So barring very extreme circumstances, nothing will change here unless it changes upstream.
- Here are the rules I copied from that market, but overall, we obey the decisions of that market, if there is a conflict or difficulty.
- I will add items they add there, too.
- Any number of these states can resolve YES at any time between now and the due date.