Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe Odyssey 100%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 26, 7:07 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Each answer resolves YES if that film's domestic (US+Canada) box office gross exceeds $250M by the end of 2026.
- Resolution source: Box Office Mojo; if unavailable or clearly erroneous, The Numbers will serve as backup.
- Films that do not open domestically in 2026 resolve NO.
- The domestic box office is forecasted to hit $9 billion in 2026, though many of the movie business's biggest franchises are showing signs of oversaturation or fatigue.
- Family films and video game adaptations proved irresistible to audiences in 2025, with "A Minecraft Movie," "Lilo & Stitch," and "Zootopia 2" being the three highest-grossing Hollywood productions.
