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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Which Labour MP(s) will mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer? [Add Answers]
Manifold Markets

Which Labour MP(s) will mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer? [Add Answers]

PoliticsOne-OffElectionEuropeAI3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Wes Streeting 74.5%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters

31

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Oct 27, 25, 1:50 PMDec 28, 29, 1:45 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Wes Streeting75%

Rules

Rumours abound that a leadership challenge will be made against Keir Starmer before the next election, possibly as early as before the 2026 local elections.

Manifold Markets
  • Leadership challenges work a little differently in the Labour party than they did for the Conservatives: A leadership challenge is deemed to have been mounted when the Labour Party confirms that a valid nomination has been received for a leadership election while Keir Starmer remains leader.
  • A valid nomination must come from a sitting Labour MP who can present the National Executive Committee with a valid list of nominations from 20% of sitting Labour MPs, so 80 of the 401 as at time of market creation.
  • This question asks, who will submit a leadership challenge before Keir Starmer leaves his post as leader of the Labour party?
  • If a name listed on this market is reported by the BBC to have met the nomination threshold and their submission accepted by the NEC, their name will resolve YES.
  • Otherwise all names will resolve NO when Keir Starmer announces his intention to stand down, or otherwise ceases to be leader of the Labour party.

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Rules

Rumours abound that a leadership challenge will be made against Keir Starmer before the next election, possibly as early as before the 2026 local elections.

Manifold Markets
  • Leadership challenges work a little differently in the Labour party than they did for the Conservatives: A leadership challenge is deemed to have been mounted when the Labour Party confirms that a valid nomination has been received for a leadership election while Keir Starmer remains leader.
  • A valid nomination must come from a sitting Labour MP who can present the National Executive Committee with a valid list of nominations from 20% of sitting Labour MPs, so 80 of the 401 as at time of market creation.
  • This question asks, who will submit a leadership challenge before Keir Starmer leaves his post as leader of the Labour party?
  • If a name listed on this market is reported by the BBC to have met the nomination threshold and their submission accepted by the NEC, their name will resolve YES.
  • Otherwise all names will resolve NO when Keir Starmer announces his intention to stand down, or otherwise ceases to be leader of the Labour party.