Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastPeople's Republic of China 86.7%+0.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
95
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 24, 25, 2:00 AMJul 20, 26, 4:00 PM
Trends
0.4%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
People's Republic of China87%
Related Markets
China attacks or invades Russia's territory by mid 2028
$350Yes: 9.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich country will build the first Military Space Station?
$312.5USA: 46.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
$212December 31: 12%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
$111.9Yes: 13%FUTUUR
FUTUURWill BRICS have a new member join or current member leave first?
$100new member joins: 83.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
IMO 2026 Winner?
$65China: 75%
KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Kyiv leadership buzz lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit by end-2026 to 11.5%Blockchain.News
Russia steps up strikes as Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2026 odds to 11.5%Blockchain.News
Zelenskyy touts repeat Ufa strike as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40.55%Blockchain.News
Ukraine reports Crimea strikes as Polymarket puts 2026 recapture odds at 13.5%Blockchain.News
UN report on POW abuses lifts Polymarket Crimea recapture odds to 14%Blockchain.News
Dnipro strike hits Ukraine as Polymarket raises Crimea recapture odds to 13.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
67th International Mathematical Olympiad - Shanghai, China (July 10-21, 2026)
- Resolves proportionally between tied teams if there is a tie for first
- This market will be resolved once official results are posted on the IMO website:
- https://www.imo-official.org/results/team/year/2026/
- Update 2026-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia participates only as individual contestants (not as an official team), they would not resolve as winners, since they would not appear in the official team rankings on the IMO website.