Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 25, 2026, 4:43 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastCerebras 100%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 days ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 11:11 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
SpaceX99%
Compare venues· Cerebras
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall90% match · verified | Medium | 99% | — | $2.7K | $638.1K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 26 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
1.0%5mo
+1.0%99%
99%
+1.0%84%
+26 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$2.7K
KALSHIRules
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it.
- As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
- Resolves according to media reporting and official statements.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it.
- As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
- Resolves according to media reporting and official statements.