Current community forecast
Nov-Dec 2026 53.4%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-7.2 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 10:51 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the tesla share price first exceed $500?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES when Tesla's stock price (TSLA) closes at or above $500 on any trading day.
- Resolution will be verified using official closing prices from NASDAQ or Yahoo Finance.
- The market resolves NO if the stock never reaches $500 by the specified end date.
- Tesla's stock closed at $449.78 on December 31, 2025, requiring approximately an 11% gain to reach $500.
- The stock reached an intraday high of $498.83 on December 22, 2025, coming within 0.2% of the target.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Tesla share price reach $500??
- Manifold Markets prices Nov-Dec 2026 at 53% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Tesla share price reach $500? resolve?
- When will Tesla share price reach $500? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will Tesla share price reach $500? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria