Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2027-04-01 88.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 25, 26, 2:05 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship flight 15 happen?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX execute a booster catch attempt during Starship flight 15 ?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX execute a ship catch attempt during Starship flight 14 ?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
Flight 9: 2025-05-27
- Flight 10: 2025-08-26
- Flight 11: 2025-10-13
- Flight 12: 2026-05-22
- Flight 13: 2026-07-24
- Flight 14: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-14-happen
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.6pt9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $106.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No54.5%
- Yes45.5%
- Total Vol
- $118.3K
- 24h Vol
- $30.3K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic-0.6pt58.8%
- SpaceX+0.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI-0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt16.7%
- Google+0.3pt7.8%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship flight 16 happen??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2027-04-01 at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Starship flight 16 happen? resolve?
- When will Starship flight 16 happen? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is When will Starship flight 16 happen? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Flight 9: 2025-05-27