Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecast
2026 99.6%+0.5ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
83
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 days ago
StaleJul 10, 24, 9:36 AMMar 31, 29, 10:59 PM
Trends
0.1%
0%
99.6%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
20240%
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Keir Starmer is the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
- The years since the Brexit referendum have been characterised by massive instability at the top of British politics.
- First David Cameron resigned, then Theresa May called a snap election, lost her majority and was removed by her party.
- She was replaced by Boris Johnson, but he struggled to keep Parliament running after he expelled a number of his own MPs and was forced to call a snap election himself.
- He won a stable majority and people were predicting that he could stay on as Prime Minister for a decade...
- But within two years he had been brought by scandal and his party replaced him with Liz Truss.