Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 1:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
After June 2028 48.1%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 7, 26, 4:56 AM UTCJul 1, 28, 7:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.
- Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
- Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
- In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
- This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
- They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.
