Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastukraine russia ceasefire 7%Leader of 30 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jun 1, 26, 12:18 AMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
ukraine russia ceasefire7%
Related Markets
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
$1KYes: 13%
KALSHI
KALSHIWill Robin Hanson receive the Nobel Prize in Economics?
$152Yes: 12%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
$101.4Yes: 4.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?
$100Yes: 42.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
$108.5United States: 58%KALSHI
KALSHI
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$148.7Yes: 7%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Iran control stance hits Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes slips to 30.5%Blockchain.News
US strikes Iran as Polymarket odds peg Starmer exit before 2027 at 90.5%Blockchain.News
Katz warns force vs Iran as Polymarket puts Dec 2026 US-Iran deal at 43.5%Blockchain.News
Reports of US strikes in Iran push Polymarket regime-fall odds to 0.15%Blockchain.News
US strikes in Iran shift Polymarket travel bets, Trump down to 15%Blockchain.NewsRules
I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.