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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Claim that Grok/xAI has reached AGI (a statement by Musk on X counts) 72.8%+22.8ptLeader of 11 outcomes
Claim that Grok/xAI has reached AGI (a statement by Musk on X counts) 72.8%+22.8ptForecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+22.8 pts
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Oct 20, 26, 1:08 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Each answer resolves independently: YES if the event happens between 1 January 2027, 00:00 UTC and 1 January 2028, 00:00 UTC; NO otherwise.
- Events before 2027 do not count.
- Each answer resolves on whether the event happens during 2027, not whether it happens for the first time.
- Actions by companies Musk leads or controls count as his.
- Sources: official company statements and regulatory filings (SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, SEC, FEC), then reputable outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, WSJ; SpaceNews, NASASpaceFlight and Spaceflight Now for spaceflight answers), and Musk's own X posts where applicable.
- In case of ambiguity, I'll open a discussion before resolving.
