Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastLength is over 500 pages 99%Leader of 32 outcomes
Forecasters
50
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 24, 6:33 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWill Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth Phase 1B be completed before winter 2028?
KalshiRules
What will be true of The Winds of Winter, the next installment in the A Song of Ice and Fire book series written by George R. R. Martin? Feel free to submit your own answers.
- I'll answer them as soon as they become apparent.
- I plan on reading the entire book as soon as it is released.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be true of The Winds of Winter? [ADD RESPONSES]?
- Manifold Markets prices Length is over 500 pages at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be true of The Winds of Winter? [ADD RESPONSES] resolve?
- What will be true of The Winds of Winter? [ADD RESPONSES] is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is What will be true of The Winds of Winter? [ADD RESPONSES] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: What will be true of The Winds of Winter, the next installment in the A Song of Ice and Fire book series written by George R. R. Martin? Feel free to submit your own answers.