Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast1-9 22.7%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 26, 2:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2026 will pass away?
Manifold MarketsExactly How many celebs on the 2026 DeathList will pass away in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Finance PhD Candidates will accept an Assistant Professor position at a top 30 Finance Department by 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiBozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What Position will the 10th Death on the DeathList 2026 be??
- Manifold Markets prices 1-9 at 23% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What Position will the 10th Death on the DeathList 2026 be? resolve?
- What Position will the 10th Death on the DeathList 2026 be? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.