Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSome primordial black holes are formed from early-universe density fluctuations (e.g., during inflation). 58.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 30, 25, 7:25 PM UTCAug 31, 00, 7:15 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Anyone can add answers.
- An answer resolves when there is widespread scientific consensus about it.
- By trading in this market, you agree to let me be the judge for subjective matters associated with this market (e.g., what counts as "widespread scientific consensus").
- When in doubt, ask before trading.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
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- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
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- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What is true about primordial black holes??
- Manifold Markets prices Some primordial black holes are formed from early-universe density fluctuations (e.g., during inflation). at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What is true about primordial black holes? resolve?
- What is true about primordial black holes? is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 3000.
- How is What is true about primordial black holes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Anyone can add answers.