What are the current odds for Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85.5% as of October 29, 2026.

Scientific consensus CO2 >1200ppm bad for cognitive capacity at EOY 2030

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 85.5%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Forecast

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Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Nov 15, 23, 10:15 AM UTCDec 30, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

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Outcome24hChance

Rules

I am open to improving or editing the resolution criteria significantly in the first 48 hours.

Feel free to make suggestions for improvements.
Resolution Criteria: Will there be a scientific consensus (in my subjective opinion) that CO2 levels above >1200ppm are bad for cognitive capacity.
What would a consensus look like: several meta analysis concluding the data shows a significant cognitive decline even at moderate CO2 levels (like 1200ppm).
Several rigorous, high powered studies, showing cognitive decline isolated to CO2 levels.