Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleDec 22, 25, 7:01 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PredictItRules
Resolution criteria
- Prediction markets currently sit in a legal grey zone in India, with no official rulebook or dedicated regulator.
- This market resolves YES if prediction markets (also called opinion trading platforms or event contracts) are explicitly legalized through federal legislation or a binding Supreme Court ruling by December 31, 2034.
- Legalization requires formal regulatory approval and licensing framework, not merely continued operation in a grey area.
- Resolution sources: Official Gazette of India (for legislation), Supreme Court of India judgments, SEBI or relevant regulatory body official statements.
- In India, the legality of prediction markets hinges on whether they are classified as games of skill or chance, as wagering agreements are generally void under the Indian Contract Act.
